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NIE Confidence.

Recently a report had been released by the NIE saying that while Iran had been illegally developing nuclear weapons up until 4 years ago, they had halted their program in 2003.  With a weak confidence the NIE suggested that perhaps the process toward getting a nuclear weapon had been halted.I know that there are individuals out there who believe that every state has a right to possess a nuclear weapon, even if they state a direct intention to destroy whole nations.  On the other hand, there are those who believe that events occur within a system.  Suggestions are meant to be heard, and reponse should be taken.Prior to the NIE’s report, much of the nation had lost confidence in the NIE as it had overestimated the amount of nuclear activity Iraq had been taking.  To this, it seems important to remember that the majority of those who antagonized the NIE were those who also would have been against a military action in Iraq.  As Operation Iraqi Freedom has progressed, those antagonizers of the NIE progressively became more and more agressive, making suggestions of conspiracy and foul play. Recently, the US has made strong suggestions to Iran that it should halt its nuclear development program.  Their nuclear development program is problematic as it is such an unstable region, but the ‘saber-ratttling’ by their premier suggests that the event of their possessing a nuclear weapon is even more detrimental than adding another confounding factor of danger into the region.

To summarize, in a region where there are long felt hatreds between groups of people, it is a bad idea to add confounding factors like nuclear weapons.  Additionally, those who supported the idea of a militarized Iran would be in the same camp as those who opposed military action in Iraq, who didn’t believe the NIE reports.  However, the instant that the NIE releases information which is in agreement with their agenda, they pride themselves with it as a legitimate release.  All I’m looking for is consistency.  All, I want is for people to approach systems in rational ways.  

If the NIE is unreliable, their unreliable, if they are trustworthy, they should be used as a contributing factor in making a decision. If Iran is going to threaten its neighbors, as everyone has seen, this is an obvious aggressive attempt (not to mention that short range weapons were still seen to be possible in the NIE report).  The NIE report shows nothing, other than that people’s emotions often dictate their rational approach to markets. 


Written by Joe

8 December at 3 pm

Posted in learn

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